Arthur C. Clarke’s “Crazy” 1974 Prediction, 10X vs. Status Quo & Tech Marketing Principles - E490

· Podcast Episodes English,VC and Angels,Southeast Asia,Singapore

 

Jeremy Au explored the evolution of technology marketing and how marketers have adapted to communicate complex innovations effectively. He began by referencing sci-fi writer Arthur C. Clarke’s 1974 “crazy” prediction about how their room-sized computers would eventually shrink to the size of briefcases and that people would eventually be able to work from anywhere in the world. Early software marketers like WordStar focused on explaining and promoting “groundbreaking” features, such as moving text blocks—capabilities that were previously unimaginable with typewriters. Jeremy emphasized that while technology continues to advance, the core human desires for status, security, and convenience remain unchanged. Companies like Apple, with products like the augmented reality Vision Pro and Apple Watch, and Dyson have mastered the art of blending functionality with premium status to appeal to early adopters and affluent consumers. He concluded by noting that despite the shifting landscape of technology -from floppy disks to cryptocurrency and AI companions - the fundamental marketing strategy endures: simplify the message and prioritize solving immediate consumer needs, a timeless approach evident in both historic and modern claims of achieving 10x disruptive improvements vs. the pain of the status quo.

Conduct predictive carbon modelling and more using AI with Nika.eco, this month’s newsletter sponsor!

Have you ever wondered how governments decide where to best strategically place telco towers, hospitals & nursing homes? Or perhaps how insurers price premiums based on sea level rise and other climate risk? More so than ever in this age of machine learning, these critical decisions today are being supported by large geospatial models that are trained with millions of spatial data points. However, such computing environments can be incredibly complex, expensive and tedious to set up. Nika.eco offers a DevOps solution that significantly saves cost and time by allowing researchers and data scientists to create an optimised geospatial machine learning environment with just one click. Reach out to info@nika.eco if you are a geospatial data scientist or climate researcher who is interested to partner on a pilot or research opportunities.

(01:11) Jeremy Au: 

Clarke is a great sci-fi guy, a bit old school when you read it today, but fantastic guy. So can you imagine how funny it is? 1974, so that's our grandparents' time, and he's saying, "Look at my little kid, he's so cute. What happens if he becomes dependent on computers? My poor kid, how would human society survive if they had a miniature computer the size of a console?" Guess where we are today two generations down? That kid became adult. The computer was the whole room, now it's in your phone. So two generations passed. Imagine this guy was talking about, Arthur C. Clarke, has explained this guy, and the interviewer was like, what's the implications of this? It's hard for him to imagine, right? And this guy is trying to explain to him. He's marketing. He's explaining. He's saying the way of the future. And One day people will be able to work anywhere in the world. That was mind blowing in 1974. And now we have people who are living in Bali or wherever they are, working on whatever project they want in 2024.

What we want to talk about as a result, is that we actually have seen that people have been trying to market this from this time onwards. So, imagine this is some guy, as a marketer, as a financer, they're all sitting around this poster and they're saying, how do we explain a visual display to people?

So it's like, can your word processor pass this screen test? WordStar software does it better than any other word processing system. With our word processor, you get a true screen image of what your printout will be, so you know what it will look like when you print it out.

You can now erase. You can now insert. You can now delete. You can now move entire blocks of text. The marketer is trying to explain to you, you can now do those things because you could not do that with a typewriter. A typewriter could not move a copy of text. You could not insert, you could not delete.

So explaining what a type is, it says, WordStyle is so easy to learn because of our unique and extensive self help systems, menus. Every typist in your office can be an instant screen star. So you see that? They already know the marketing is like, we're trying to get people who are typing secretaries. We're trying to get them to become our new users, right? You see another marketing copy. It's like, free, unfloppable floppy. So they're saying, Just send us a coupon and you get one free floppy disk, we'll give you a discount on a future purchase of a floppy. We call it the "No Bad Memories". No regret.

And once you try us, we'll be using us over and over again. And then, probably seen this type of marketing everywhere, so they're appealing to a certain demographic, to be like, hey, pay attention, we're in color, so this is floppy hard marketing. What we see here is a different type of marketing.

(03:28) Jeremy Au: 

The hard disk. For only 3, 398, you get 10 megabytes! Amazing! Mind blowing! Big sticker on the top right! XCOMP introduces a new system with more storage, more speed, more value, more support. No brainer. For 10 megabytes. That was their marketing message back in those days. and now, another one a phone, an affordable, handheld, cellular communication convenience. They can't even say phone. They had to explain every single part of it so brain can process this, okay? First of all, headline save 800, that's the word, discount, promo. It's only 1, 499 US dollars.

for an affordable handheld cellular communication convenience. CT-300 lets you make and take calls wherever you go. Only one and a half inches wide and 28 ounces for easy portability. With 40 number memory, a built-in rechargeable battery pack, an antenna, and strap. So I love the fact that you can do and record 40 phone numbers in this phone.

So this is what you have to be thinking about, is that even then they were talking about, how do I communicate the future to somebody who doesn't understand it? Do I use price? Do I use promotion? Do I use compelling, attractive person holding two giant floppy disks? How do I catch somebody's eye to persuade them to use the future?

So they explain every part of it. My favorite is what the heck is electronic mail? They spell out the question. What the heck is electronic mail? Because they know you heard about it from somewhere, and to explain it. Electronic mail is a term that has been bandied about data processing circles for years. In other words, it's not a new thing. It's been talked about for years. It is an old thing amongst experts.

Simply put, it means high speed information transportation. We're just transporting information. One of the most advanced methods is terminals talking to one another. This is, easing you to understand electronic mail. Your physical mailbox is the terminal on your desk. Punch a key, and today's correspondence and letters are available for you. They're literally explaining every single step of electronic mail, and then they talk about the benefits. Do you need to notify people immediately of a fast breaking development?

You can email them, right? People are more effective. Managers are more up to date, right? And what I like to say is, tomorrow's automated office will clearly include electronic mail. But like the rest of the office of the future, it's available at Honeywell today. So what I'm saying is, it is inevitable.

Everyone's gonna do it, but you can get it now. And you can see this messaging everywhere, right?

(05:48) Jeremy Au: 

Crypto. "Everyone will use crypto, bro." " Buy it." "It'll surely go up." "Everybody will use crypto." "Nobody will use cash anymore." Don't worry. We've been talking about it since ten years ago. "Why you wait so slow?"

So we always say that it's the marketing and technology, we make it inevitable. Have you heard of NFTs? Bot apes, make money, right? Everybody's doing that, right? And then you see Burroughs. Burroughs announces the 80 hour workday, If you use our ingenious productivity called Lead Logic and Information Network Compiler, a programmer can now increase their productivity as much as 10 times more.

It's like getting an extra 72 hours of work in a day. Isn't this the same story as ChatGPT? Marketers, you can increase the productivity of your marketing by 10 times.

You can increase the productivity of your coder by 10 times. So this is the same ad that's happening over and over again, but for different technologies to the time travel.

First thing is first person point of view, always. So, when you're trying to communicate technology, it's very hard to use a lot of big words. So when you notice an ad, there's a lot of big words. Normally that means they're trying to look more cool, right?

Look more tech. So you may hear something like, I'm a big bank! We now do crypto they're trying to make it very complex. And there's normally a mark of an incumbent trying to show that they're innovating. Whereas, the mark of a true attacker or startup is that they make it very simple.

The simpler they make it, the better. So when ChatGPT, look, AI has been around for a long time, machine learning, but ChatGPT was basically like, we give you a text box, and you just type whatever you want. So they're trying to make it simpler and simpler, for the UX.

So You must be aware that there's something that you do.

Another thing is you have to be thoughtful about where you're marketing towards as well. So is that YouTube? Who are the right people you have there? For example, on Twitch, you probably see live streaming. You see a lot of computer gaming hardware. So you see a lot of Secretlab, which is a Singaporean company, right?

The Gamer Chair. So Singaporean gamer chair is like, we need as many live streamers on Twitch who are playing games to use Secretlab, right? Then you see

Razer, you see all these gaming ads, you see all those like Monster and energy drinks,

So, they're all sponsoring those things because they want it to be seen on live stream. So, because they're seeing the demographic of where it is there.

(07:45) Jeremy Au: 

What I'm trying to say here is that marketing is very, very basic. in fact, it's probably one of the most primal things you can do. When I have a two-year-old and a four-year-old, they're trying to communicate. They're trying to ask questions. They're trying to get things. For example, my kid who's four years old, she'll do anything for blueberries, So she'll try to persuade me to get a blueberry, there's a transaction happening. So marketing, and what I'm trying to say is, tech is always version 3.72, 3.73a, 3.89 Sirius, 3.95 Gemini. There's always a new version but all of us are still version 0.1 alpha. If you time traveled 10, 000 years ago, if you met a human, you'd probably be exactly the same. Your biological clock, your biological brain, your biological impulses, your DNA is exactly as the same as it has been, effectively, for the past 10 to 100,000. Trust me, if you travel back in time, 10,000 years ago, 100,000 years ago, and you gave them McDonald's, they will happily eat the McDonald's. If you travel back in time and give them a supercomputer to gamble, they will love to gamble. They are exactly the same human as we are today, and we are the same human as it was back then.

What I'm trying to say here is that marketing is a very primal thing, it's a skill set that has been done for multiple sets of technology, and solutions are new.

And problems are forever. So, problems like loneliness has always been around. Problems like fear, insecurity, war, these problems keep coming up over and over again. There's always a new solution, generation 2, generation 5, next gen, whatever it is, a new product is coming to place.

What's really key is that you need to know your customer at that time and place. A lot of people get this wrong. They think my job is to sell technology to this person. But I always tell people, I was like, you mean, who are you selling to? When are you selling to at that time? And where are they at that place? That's really important for you to be thinking about all the time.

For example we have McDonald's and Subway. If I locked you in this room for three days and I brought this food, I'm sure you'll be very happy about the food.

No matter what it is. So, your amount of happiness to this food is relation to how long you've been hungry for. A product can be more valuable at certain times, and less valuable at other times. You need to always be thinking about who your customer is, at what time, at what place.

(09:58) Jeremy Au: 

When we do a Lean Canvas, there is a canvas that helps describe all of this. The problem, the solution, the key metrics, the unique value proposition, the unfair advantage, the channels, the customer segments, and then the cost structure and revenue structure. This canvas is divided into two parts. One, is the product, in terms of what you're producing. And a market is like, what does the market want to give you. So it's like inside out versus outside in.

The key thing I want to talk about is, number one is the problem is this.

You should be solving that person's number one problem. We need to know who, when, and why they have that number one problem at this point. Whoever that is, that's the crux of it. Now, what that means is that there are infinite number of problems for definite number of groups or subgroups. And you, for example, could have multiple number one problems. If I cut off your right arm, your number one problem is that you're bleeding out, and you probably want a tourniquet, and you want to go to hospital, and I can charge you a million dollars to go to hospital.

So that would be your number one problem if I cut off your arm. And if I show off a very expensive watch in front of you, then you feel envious, then I can sell you something, which is I can sell you crypto. Or I can sell you a way to help you get rich quicker. There are different ways to prime and get people ready for that. For example, we have cancer. It's a big problem. Nobody wants to die from cancer. When you have cancer, you want to get out. When your dad or your mom has cancer, you want that to be fixed. If you have poverty, you feel poor, or you are poor, you want to get rich, you want financial security.

(11:19) Jeremy Au: 

If you're aging, you want to look younger, you want to feel younger, you want to become younger. And if you're in a war and losing, then you want to win. So these are all nature states that can be done at certain times and processes.

As a result, there are different solutions. for cancer, the solution can be, immunotherapy that will get rid of cancer for you. If you're running a small business in an emerging market, we can provide loans to help you grow your business. If you're aging, Brian Johnson is coming to Singapore.

He's trying to be the slowest aging person in the world. And he's setting up a conference called Don't Die Conference in Singapore so there's going to be a bunch of longevity influencers all coming out and hanging out with him. then you want to have military drones. So there are lots of different ways for different solutions.

(11:59) Jeremy Au: 

Dyson vacuum cleaner. They're targeting a similar customer segment, which is rich people. And you need a brand, right? So, obviously you and I, use normal vacuum cleaners, but Dyson's like, why do you have a cable? And have you heard of rotorless? so they're trying a premium version of this thing. Most of that stuff is not manufactured in America, it's manufactured in Asia.

Dyson will be a good example of a very similar, not only in terms of Apple marketing in terms of the premium product, but also in terms of their customer segment.

So you say Apple user, you may often see an overlap with Dyson. Apple has become more commoditized in the sense that Dyson is really a luxury product. Whereas, Apple now, they're trying to be like, you need a computer that works for you. So it's a little bit more like lower class in a sense. Not as low class as an Android user, supposedly in terms of their marketing. I think I would say that it's about one tier. Apple's trying to do both. The Apple Vision Pro will be like Dyson, but a little bit more leading edge. Apple Watch is around there, and then the next stage would be, I think they're trying to be like everybody's computer. So student discounts.

So Dyson would never have a student discount for a Dyson fan or a hair curler, right? But Apple's happy to do student discounts for students because they want you to start using and get used to the Mac interface as early as possible, so that you get stuck and then you don't want to switch to PC, similar to how PCs do that for Apple as well.

(13:05) Jeremy Au: 

On that note, thank you so much.