China: US$1.1 Trillion Monetary Stimulus, Temu & Shein vs. USA De Minimis Tariffs & YouTube & Shopee Anti-TikTok Shop Alliance with Jianggan Li- E485

Jianggan Li, Founder & CEO of Momentum Works, and Jeremy Au discussed:

1. US$1.1 Trillion Monetary Stimulus: Jianggan and Jeremy examined China’s recent monetary measures (equivalent to 6% of nominal GDP) boosting consumer confidence and stabilizing the housing and stock markets. The Politburo launched a $114 billion lending pool to support stock buybacks by asset managers and insurers, lowered the policy interest rate by 0.2% and reduced mortgage interest rates by 0.5%. They speculated that fiscal stimulus, including broader consumption voucher programs like the $72 million initiative in Shanghai, is likely to follow. These efforts are intended to stabilize China’s real estate market and restore confidence after a prolonged period of economic slowdown.

2. Temu & Shein vs. USA De Minimis Tariffs: They focused on the de minimis rule, which currently allows imports under $800 to enter the US tariff-free. Jianggan explained how Chinese platforms like Temu (Pinduoduo) and Shein have benefited from this loophole by shipping small goods directly to American consumers. The Biden administration’s efforts to close this loophole will harm low-income American consumers, reducing welfare benefits by $12-14 billion USD. Chinese exporters, particularly smaller ones, may also face challenges, though large platforms are adapting by increasing inventory stored in the US to mitigate this new tariff.

3. YouTube & Shopee Anti-TikTok Shop Alliance: They discussed China’s growing influence on Southeast Asia’s cross-border trade, with Vietnam emerging as a key hub for Chinese companies. Warehouses along the Vietnam-China border are facilitating live-stream sales directly to Vietnamese consumers. Additionally, the conversation touched on YouTube’s partnership with Shopee, which is seen as a strategic move to counter TikTok Shop. This partnership is expected to expand across Southeast Asia, with Indonesia positioned as a critical battleground in the e-commerce space.

Jeremy and Jianggan also touched on other relevant topics, including the impact of US interest rate cuts on global markets, the role of the Chinese Yuan in export competitiveness, and Vietnam’s strategy to navigating the USA-China rivalry.

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(01:07) Jeremy Au:

Good morning.

(01:09) Jianggan Li:

Good morning talking from Singapore for the first time since a while

(01:12) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, I know it's a busy week with super returns conference and everything. A lot of big news has happened with China.

(01:17) Jeremy Au:

So I think the big ones that came out was that there's a big central bank stimulus by China.

(01:21) Jianggan Li:

It's not only the central bank. It's just a bit of everything. I was watching a movie last night and my phone kept beeping about all this like new policies that have been been launched and if you follow the stock market in China and Hong Kong, the last two days has been a binge, right?

So I think Hong Kong, Hong Kong has an index rose a 4.16% yesterday. So that's something which people have not seen for a while. And I was actually talking to you, because this week's the SuperReturns. So lots of investors are in town and I was talking to somebody who lost hundreds of millions in the secondary market in Hong Kong over the last year. Yesterday you said, finally, I feel less bad about myself.

(01:55) Jeremy Au:

Yeah. it feels like as if the Politburo has, I think an aversion or has not wanted to do the stimulus for quite a while cause I think there's a lot of like standard, orthodox international economists saying like, the stimulus should have come up earlier. The real estate bubble has popped, but okay, we need to transition the economy, because of the loss of consumer confidence. And we talked about it in our last podcast episode. What do you think has changed so that they are actually coming out with stimulus?

(02:19) Jianggan Li:

I think many people believe, maybe me included, believe that so all these policies, they have been prepared, they have been debated over and over. And if you know how the Communist Party and if you know how the Chinese government make decisions, they take a long time to assess all the scenarios before they make a decision. That doesn't necessarily guarantee that they always make the optimized decision, but whatever decision comes out has probably gone through a lot of thinking. our speculation is that this policy has been sort of out tray for a long time. They're just waiting for, for some, for some timing to do it.

if you look at timing a few things happened. The US interest rate, has finally started to lower and I think, and many people believe this is the key trigger for, for them to say that, okay, now, we're entering new phase. The red luring cycle and maybe this is time to roll out some stimulus and people suspect they still have a lot of other ammunition in the war chest.

I think this is what people have been speculating for a while, whether the other things will be released or launched over the next few weeks, few months, I think depends. So let's see how the market will react for the next few days, because of course you have big euphoria and excitement, but afterwards people will start reflecting and making bets about what might happen in the future.

(03:26) Jeremy Au:

I think some of the numbers we have here is that they announced a $114 billion lending pool to help people buy more stocks from asset managers, insurers, and brokers and help companies do stock buybacks. I thought that was surprising because that was, I mean, other stimuluses, like, you know, but this one's like, you're giving a lending pool to help capitalist, capital providers do stock buybacks it feels different for me at least.

(03:47) Jianggan Li:

I think we've talked to of course, China is a vast country, right? So there'll be lots of people who are, to half the population who still live in rural areas, but if you look at the people in urban areas middle class and above, the last year the consumption has been taking a big hit. You can probably see that there are a few reasons for that. First is the property price. I mean, almost everybody owns at least one property in China and almost all the properties are leveraged, which means that if the property price is slumping and you get this disproportionality hit of your personal wealth.

I think the same was happening to the stock market, right? Many people would have direct stock purchase or through any kinds of funds to have exposure to the stock market. And that has not been good for the last few years. So we put this few things together and people have sort of uncertainty about the future. right? I was talking to, my MBA classmates in a reunion in Xi'an two weeks ago and common sentiment is that, oh I don't know what's going to happen to my stock holding, which is now super depressed. I have a mortgage to pay and now the house is under the value of what I purchased a few years ago. So of course, under that kind of circumstance, I will not spend. I would trade my Christian Dior bag for a Chachi bag. I would trade Starbucks for Luckin. And now many people are like drinking free coffee from the office. So they need something to boost their morale, boost their confidence.

(04:57) Jeremy Au:

So, they also lowered interest rates to increase the stimulus package as well. I think they also made promises. I think there's a statement to say that the housing price should recover, which was an interesting statement. Obviously, there hasn't been much support yet for the housing market specifically, which is the thing that is generated a lot of the recent, pressure, right?

(05:16) Jianggan Li:

I think the housing, the property market has been a key policy direction for a few years. From before the pandemic, they had this policy saying that the real estate, the apartments, for people to live and not a financial instrument. So, at that time, they were trying to address the problem that there was so much speculation. I mean, remember, like, every time there's a new policy about a certain area, people from across the country flock there to buy properties. So that showed a bubble in property, but also the lack of investment opportunities in other areas. In a country, if you look at what came out this week I think the lingo is quite different. Right? I mean, so, so last week, last few iterations of policies is about, I mean, how do you manage the property market? I mean, like vague language, right? But this time is very specific saying that, okay, it should not fall anymore.

So, it doesn't say that you will support the price to rise, but it is very explicit to say that the public price should not fall anymore. So once that becomes a document from the Politburo, I think the level of execution will be different.

(06:09) Jeremy Au:

When you say the level of execution is different, that means it'll be better, it'll be stronger, it'll be about the same. What does it mean that it's different?

(06:14) Jianggan Li:

I think across the board, I mean, the official then will take it more seriously because that almost becomes a target, but of course, again, the question is how the execution at the local level would become? And especially local governments that now have lots of debts and have lots of problems to deal with.

(06:28) Jeremy Au:

Yeah. So I think the key thing is that from my perspective, it feels like this is primarily a monetary stimulus. There's been a policy interest rate cut of 0.2%. You lowered the bank's reserve requirements. You also cut the existing mortgage interest rates by 0.5 percentage points as well.

So I think lots of monetary stimulus but of course it takes time to get through. I haven't really seen too much on the fiscal side. I do know that Shanghai just rolled out a consumption voucher program as well. They're deploying about 72 million, USD of consumption vouchers, people to, go out to eat go to hotels, watch movies, watch sports. But I was just kind of curious, do we see any more fiscal stuff coming down the line?

(07:07) Jianggan Li:

I'm sure knowing how the government makes decisions, how they prepare for the decisions I'm sure this has been thought about, debated about, and a few plans based on different scenarios have probably been approved just waiting for the right time to release it if they decide to release it so I do think they already have the plans The question is that whether they were unleashed plans or if they do, when?

(07:26) Jeremy Au:

Yeah. So you think that it's not like, I think the reason why I say is because I think a lot of external observers are like, Oh, it's monetary only. So without fiscal, it's not going to really work out. And then it feels like basically what we're saying is, I think the timing is more like we believe that right now that's monetary first. And then after that, the fiscal will follow.

(07:42) Jianggan Li:

Yeah, I see how the market responds and I think they probably also want to see how the interest rate in the US would continue to be lowered or whatever. I think there are lots of factors they're taking into consideration. What I'm saying is that they have the fiscal plans probably ready. It's just when they will launch it, or whether they will launch it.

(07:58) Jeremy Au:

I think the other thing that's interesting is that the yuan has been growing over the past two months. Even though the Chinese domestic market was pretty bad, the yuan still went up. And now with this set of boosts, the yuan has also grown again. I think everybody feels like the yuan could go higher, so I don't think that's really a issue. But I think, weak yuan is good for exports, which is the current strategy, although exports are running into tariffs and other barriers, trade wise by other countries. I'm just kind of curious. I mean, obviously we're not making bets on investment advice about whether to buy yuan or short yuan, but, but what do you think about that?

(08:33) Jianggan Li:

I mean a few WeChat groups of large cross border e-commerce communities in Shenzhen, in Xinjiang province, right? So last night there was discussion. In one of the groups that there's some universal saying that, ah, so I mean you guys rising, how's that going to impact the whole cross border ecosystem and the people doing trade in general, right? And somebody else responded. Somebody said, hey, look I'm a big seller and I have I mean we we hedge ourselves. I mean we've been looking at exchange rate every day. We have plans for it to move to other directions. So if we don't do that, we would have lost money a long time ago. So don't underestimate us

(09:04) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, I think it's interesting, I mean, it's not a neat, let's see what happens there because, obviously with a stronger yuan, then, deflation is more likely as well, right? Because right now there's Chinese deflation. So if a stronger yuan, imports become cheaper, there could be more deflation. So I think it's a little bit, if everything moves up, everything moves down, right? So nothing's perfect. But I think it's an interesting note.

(09:23) Jianggan Li:

At the end of the day, it's still, I mean, how do you get consumers to have the confidence to spend? What do you do? Some people are even speculating that the ballistic missile that showed up this week is a moral booster. It's intended to be a moral booster. It's like a first, first such test in like 44 years.

(09:38) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, well, I don't know if that works. Shout out to ICBM because, I think the global news reacted more negatively to the ICBM test launch. I think what China vowed that there'll be primarily for defensive use. I think China has a no first use policy for its nuclear policy. It's a pledge, not necessarily a written contract.

(09:57) Jianggan Li:

I would argue that for large countries, I mean, pledge and written contract, it's the same thing. It's at the end of the day, I mean, how credible you are in front of the international community. You see large countries not respecting international, international sort of laws international contracts all the time.

Contracts are harder to enforce for larger countries. Just look at China, US, India. How many international treaties they are not in and how many they are in, and they are not respecting the rulings by the governing bodies of those treaties.

(10:22) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, reminds me of the phrase that, "the strong do what they want and the weak must do what they must."

(10:27) Jianggan Li:

Who said that? Sounds familiar.

(10:28) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, singapore must abide by international law. It's a small country, so what to do? No, I think what's interesting, is that, this is impacting some of the thinking around Southeast Asia, especially in terms of trade. So I think there's two sets of cross border commerce as a result, right? Which is exports a huge part of the Chinese strategy, similar to Japan, Korea. The US is looking to close the loophole on imports below a certain size, I believe it's about $800 USD, we're not getting the US tariffs.

And then the second part of cost is, I think there's a lot of moves and counter moves across Vietnam as well as YouTube and Shopee slash Sea group is fighting back against TikTok Shop as well.

(11:05) Jianggan Li:

I think de minimis is, so that rules initially for $200, right? I think in 2016 or 2017, it was risen to $800. Obviously, people say this is a big loophole, but if you look at, Much of the cross border goods and very few of them actually exceeding $200. So it's still, I mean, look at Temu's was average average order size is probably about 35 to 40. And I would think that Shein's is not that high either. But the question is that I mean, the rule was initially set for people to bring things back to the country, things they've purchased overseas and they don't have to pay a tax. I think many countries have these kind of rules. Now the rule has been used by cross border sellers to, to send things, massive amount of things into the country. And the consumers want it. The question is from a policy maker point of view, how do you balance that? I mean, in a way that it hurts retail system, right?

I mean, if you can buy things at a very competitive price, bypassing all the intermediaries, directly from the manufacturers via one platform, it's more efficient compared to a traditional import, export and distribution ecosystem where you have a lot more inventory, lead time and parties in between which need to make a profit. The question is that, if you look at pure economics, I think this is probably a more efficient system, but different countries would have different political considerations. The goods you buy, as long as they are not produced in your country, will probably continue to be sourced from China.

And the question is who will benefit from that process? It's always a game between the sellers, distributors, as well as consumers. So in a way, I'm not sure how much, I mean, for the US, how much of that is really a problem. For countries like Indonesia and Vietnam where the domestic ecosystem is weaker and they have fewer ways to diversify their revenue sources. Obviously it's a bigger problem. So the government needs to do something about it, but for the US , I think it's less of a problem.

(12:39) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, I mean, I think the whole point of the di minimus dynamic was to allow, individuals to get items with less tax and faster, right? Which is a form of mandatory benefit, right? You receive a good faster by three days. There's a benefit to it.

I think we will share this article by Tyler Cohen, which is about paper by Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal. But basically that research paper was that in America, is primarily lower income zip codes that are more likely to import this type of shipment, therefore the benefits of this generally are pro poor people, because poor people want to buy cheap items to improve their household, quality of life. you have low income then you want to buy things cheaply, right? And so there's a bunch of welfare benefits.

(13:17) Jianggan Li:

If you have like 200 to spend and previously you can buy four things. Now you can buy 12 things of course your quality of life improves.

(13:23) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, exactly. And so basically, I think the Biden's administration has moved to try to eliminate this whole from that perspective would reduce welfare by about 12 to 14 billion USD. And primarily that HUD will help primarily hurt low income and minority consumers. So I think that's the claim by the research paper. But I think intuitively, I think that kind of makes sense, because imports larger than that, at a wholesale level, right? Or, distributed level that obviously that's primarily going to middle class and upper class Americans as well. So I think it's an interesting trade off.

(13:53) Jianggan Li:

If you look at some of the companies impacted, people say that, okay, that's going to impact I think Shein, and in fact, I think Pinuduoduo, which is Temu's parent company. Their share price actually dropped a lot since the rumor of that no, since the announcement of that potential sort of rule change. Of course, it has grown back since, since the stimulus came out in China. But But, but, but this guy's happy anticipating this, right? So, so, so if you look at Pinduoduo's earnings call for the first quarter of this year, and all they talked about is compliance, right? So, rules might change when it be compliant and since March onwards they've been focusing heavily on the goods which are already in the US instead of shipping it directly cross border. I think a few months later till now, I mean, almost all the advertising spend they do for goods which are already stored in the US before they were ordered. They anticipated this and and they had a plans to respond to this.

The question moving forward becomes a continuous sort of I mean, of course, there will be political forces saying that, you can't do this, right? And for whatever motives they have. So moving forwards, the issue will probably become sort of, I don't know, tug of war or something, that some people will try to, like, impose more limitations, and the platforms will respond to that. But many of the smaller cross border on sites, smaller cross border sort of platforms, which do not have the resources, which do not have the ability to leverage capital to take risks, will probably be impacted more, but you never know because cockroaches always find a way to survive.

(15:10) Jeremy Au:

Well, like you said, some people benefit, some people lose, And I think Temu and Shein are large enough to figure out some alternatives but the small exporters in China would be worse off. And then in America, the poor would be more worse off in terms of having higher inflation as a result. And I guess the US government benefits a bit because they're able to do more taxation. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

I think we also want to talk about Southeast Asia, There's a lot of moves and countermoves across borders, similarly.

So we previously talked about how Indonesia has been copying moves by the US to create import tariffs against Chinese goods, primarily driven by TikTok shop, right? I would say is a big driver of that as well. And I think the big news was that YouTube has decided to ally with Shopee, basically because, people didn't expect, video to be such a key driver of sales. People in America watch QVC, a form of home entertainment shopping channel. TikTok has a strong combination between stimulating interest to buy with a testimonial and making it seamless to buy straight away. So I think there's a very strong combo. what are your thoughts about this kind of fight versus counter fight?

(16:10) Jianggan Li:

I think players like YouTube or Facebook have been exploring how to monetize right? How to mo monetize the selling of good to e-commerce because if you, if they can do that, that opens a, a very large potential revenue source and you can close the transactions, you can charge a commission, then people who wanna sell more goods would, would place more advertising on your platform.

TikTok's Chinese version, Douyin has been doing that fairly successfully. We spoke with a lot of sellers on doing a lot of MCNs and it turned out and people tend to think that, okay, how much commission you can make from selling e commerce. It turned out that eventually, it falls back to advertising,

If I want to sell things, if I want more people to see my video of selling things, I pay for advertising to put my video feed to more people. So they earn a lot of money from that. I think this is something that YouTube and Meta have been trying to tap into. If you notice, I think Meta Has a collaboration with a number of players in North America. So about, direct conversion and closing the loop. this deal YouTube has been negotiating with Shopee took a long while to negotiate and figure out the technicalities, so it seems very serious about it. We shall see how the execution is like, because, at the end of the day, these two large organizations with different working culture, with different sort of styles of doing things. So if they can actually work with each other smoothly, and I think that would unleash some interesting prospects and competitive dynamics in this region.

(17:24) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, I think it's interesting because YouTube shopping is already active in South Korea and now it's expanding to Thailand and Vietnam with this new partnership. Would it be interesting to see how it plays out? Because I think shopping is somewhat different from the US. Obviously the question is, when does YouTube shopping expand to Indonesia. That's the real battlefield that everybody's fighting for.

(17:41) Jianggan Li:

I do hear from the grapevine that TikTok Shop was banned because of this new social media selling policy last year. I think YouTube took it very seriously. They sought legal opinion and stuff, which must have indicated that they were starting the e commerce market very seriously.

(17:55) Jeremy Au:

Yeah. So I think that means it's only a matter of time before the Indonesia market entry by YouTube shopping will come in. So it will be interesting to see, what's going to be sold.

(18:02) Jianggan Li:

So they were found finding one way or another to monetize their traffic through e commerce and by doing it themselves, which I think it's probably unlikely because imagine the operations there that you need to build and look at the number of people that the shop has hired. But you can work with other parties that you can work with shopping, you can work with Lazada and you can work with others who are trying to bring, who are trying to sell more online or who are trying to selling operations online.

(18:25) Jeremy Au:

So I think it will be interesting to see how that plays out. And you know, you want to talk about the Vietnam side as well.

(18:31) Jianggan Li:

It's interesting dynamics. When I was in Vietnam a month ago, there's this article by a, by a newspaper affiliated to the youth league of the communist party, which said that, along the border with China on the Chinese side, they are full of cross border e commerce warehouses. The journalist went to two towns on the China side of the border near the border crossing, he saw loads of warehouses and people hiring Vietnamese hosts to do live streaming from there and sell goods into Vietnam and ship directly into Vietnam.

That caused a lot of discussions amongst the policymakers as well. how should I deal with that? On the one hand, that allowed people access to low cost goods. On the other hand, it hurts the local economy, which in a place like Vietnam might not be as organized to respond something more competitive and more aggressive. The position of Vietnam is interesting in the current US China dynamics. The new general secretary and the president of Vietnam, To Lam, is in the US this week. I think he met Biden on Wednesday. So there's lots of dynamics being played out and it'd be very interesting to see how that will continue the route from China to Vietnam now, because of all this cross border e commerce, et cetera, so, so that a lot of service providers came about, logistic providers, I mean, payment providers, et cetera.

So will this route become something like, I mean, from China export to Vietnam or, I mean, it will go further afield, right? So turning maybe Northern part of Vietnam into something like Hong Kong, which becomes a transferring hub for goods, right? I mean, goods get exported to Vietnam than to other countries. So this is all possible but there are a few things which will impact this. I mean, the US election results and how the government sees this dynamics of goods being sold in Vietnam per se and as well as the competition. Vietnamese businesses tend to be very competitive as well.

(20:07) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, I mean, I think today, the Vietnamese also met with Joe Biden, right? So it's part of their bamboo strategy to stay neutral between, China the US and also Russia. But yeah, It was interesting to see how it turns out. I think it's interesting to see whether they push back or not as well. I mean, I think it's not an easy path, right? Because if you share a land border of China, I'm sure it must be so much imports. I mean, Cambodia as well as Laos have a lot of exposure to China already right now.

(20:31) Jianggan Li:

Yeah, so also, basically the question is that, I mean, how do you, I mean, goods from China or manufacturing capacity from China or manufacturing expertise from China would find a way to spill over. And since you share a large border and people see similarities in cultures. So people tend to try to leverage your position more on the questions that how do you channel this, right? I mean, how do you, instead of trying to sort of deny or ignore its existence, how do you proactively make it beneficial for your economy people and businesses? That's a test of the wisdom of the country. I think that the former General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Mr. Truong, who passed away a few months ago did that very well. Mr. Lam, the new party secretary, I think he has shown signs of doing the right things, going to China first and signing a number of deals, then meeting the party Secretary of the province of China right next to Vietnam. They're now going to the US. He's also playing the Balancing Act. Of course it's not easy, but so is Singapore's balancing act, right? It's never easy, but it takes commitment and wisdom over a long period of time. It's not a simple game that you score a win and it's happy ever after. You need to constantly navigate.

(21:34) Jeremy Au:

Yeah, they constantly navigate. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because Singapore just made a call on the UN and said, Hey, the United Nations Security Council needs to use its vetoes less, needs to let its elected members, well not the permanent members, which is obviously US , China the UK, France, and Russia. So basically Singapore's making a call, it's like, hey, the rest of the world should get more of a say in our policy resolutions, right? Because they keep getting vetoed by the five security council members. So yeah, I think Singapore's also trying to balance, but also try to get more independent wriggling room.

(22:06) Jianggan Li:

I think they've been doing the right thing of calling for a rule based international ecosystem and that will benefit all of the smallest states, right? Big countries can afford to ignore the rules, but most of the countries in the world can't.

(22:18) Jeremy Au:

Yeah. Well, all I can hope is that maybe, I dream of world peace, right? A better life for everybody. Everybody should make money, send their kids to school, and go home safe and sleep in a nice warm bed. Otherwise, everything else is such a nightmare.

(22:29) Jianggan Li:

The world is a complicated place and again, we can't make it happen and and just rest on it. So it's something that people need to work on and good that we have a few sort of responsible players doing that.

Let's hope that, that this two episodes in Europe and and the Middle East find a reasonable solution. It will not be easy, but I think that the status quo it's, it's miserable.

(22:47) Jeremy Au:

Yeah. On that note, thank you so much. I think the big three takeaways is first of all, the perspective of the China stimulus in terms of the monetary side and soon, probably the fiscal side as well to support the housing market, the stock market, as well as general business and consumer confidence.

Secondly, thanks for sharing about, China cross border, Which is really about the de minimis kind of like imports to US and how USA working to close that from their perspective loophole, is going to impact the poor of America, but also have some ripple effects on Chinese producers.

And lastly, thanks for sharing about China's relationship with Southeast Asia, cross border commerce, which is really about, kind of like the Vietnam, the warehouses, the live streaming that's there, but also I think the alliance between YouTube with Shopee, Sea group to compete with ByteDance TikTok shop.

On that note, thank you so much for sharing.

(24:03) Jianggan Li:

Cheers.

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