"The Southeast Asia tech ecosystem is deeply intertwined, with numerous connections that have been formed, are forming, and will continue to form. The roles people hold are often temporary—someone might be a CEO for three years, a head of talent for two. Truly understanding who someone is, within the context of others in the ecosystem—be it a new emergent leader, an old competitor, or a potential collaborator—is key. Developing a mental model of who they are as a person helps in assessing the accuracy of their narrative and how they fit within this dynamic network." - Jeremy Au
"I really enjoy interviewing both people I know and those I don't. For those I'm not acquainted with, it's a fantastic opportunity to learn about them personally. Even with friends or acquaintances, I'm often surprised during the podcast interviews when I discover new aspects of their lives—parts of their stories I had never heard before. Everyone has their own story, like Jeff Bezos; we all know he founded Amazon, but it's rare to hear him share the personal narrative that's in his head. I cherish uncovering these 'secret' individual stories because they reveal so much about a person's background, their family, their challenges, and even hint at who they might become in the future, along with the values that guide their decisions." - Jeremy Au
"The key insight I've gathered is that almost all insights eventually become common wisdom, and the truly insightful are those who grasp these ideas first. Being early to an opinion and understanding its probability is a hallmark of someone worth listening to. This encapsulates the art of forecasting—making predictions and assessing their likelihood. It's a vital skill for VCs, who must navigate an ecosystem teeming with thousands of founders, knowing that only a small fraction will succeed. With a 90% failure rate for startups, VCs are tasked with predicting which ventures will thrive long before they do. Success in this arena earns them accolades, while missed predictions often attract ridicule. Ultimately, the crux of this business lies in the accuracy of these forecasts." - Jeremy Au
Jeremy Au reflects on the most important insight that he learned from interviewing hundreds of tech leaders across the region. Every secret has a shelf life, as private information diffuses into the public markets and becomes known by everyone. Leaders who discern emerging patterns before they become common wisdom can take action and make high-conviction bets while others mock them. He also underscores the value of understanding other's personal narratives to uncover motivations and predict future actions in a rapidly-evolving web of relationships.
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(00:24) Jeremy Au:
I had an opportunity to go on a walk with somebody who is a listener of the BRAVE podcast. She asked me a really interesting question, which was, "Hey, Jeremy, what's the key insight that you learned from the podcast? What's the most important lesson that you've learned from talking to so many movers and shakers and pioneers across Southeast Asia?"
The question was interesting because she was expecting me to share something about hard knowledge, right? It's like a core insight that is a super weapon in terms of being a founder or VC.
I'm going to share with you what I shared with her, with more detail and a little bit more reflection. And at the end of this, I'll also share a bonus insight that I've learned from conducting this podcast.
The most interesting, hard knowledge about the BRAVE podcast is that there is no hard knowledge that is special about the broadcast. And when you hear this, you're probably saying, "Oh, Jeremy, that's such a cop out." What I've realized is that people are sharing insights that become, to some extent, public knowledge, but they share that six months to one year to two years or longer in advance of the common wisdom.
What I'm saying here is that it isn't about a specific point of knowledge that's so special and I can keep whatever it is. The key insight is about the fact that the people who are most insightful are not insightful because they know something more than everybody else, which of course is what we want to know, and it's that they know about something before everybody else does. So there's a function of knowing something when it happens rather than if they know something and what the knowledge is about.
Another way of saying that is that is, "Jeremy, hey, what's the most insightful thing that you've learned about the people, market, or ecosystem?"
I would be like, "Eh, if I told you what I know and felt, you would be like, Oh, Jeremy, but I already know about this. Oh, Jeremy, you're sharing about the fact that the Southeast Asia system has much more difficulty in terms of exit outcomes and so so forth."
And I would be like, yeah, that's the point, which is that they are sharing this point that we all currently understand as public wisdom amongst those who are in the know, maybe the top 20%, top 30% of the ecosystem was once upon a time only held by the top 10%, which was in turn only held by the top 5%, which in turn was held by the top 1%, and then, which was in turn held by only the 0.1%.
In other words, somebody came to that realization first, years in advance, one year in advance, six months in advance. What I'm trying to say here is that knowledge has a bit of a diffusion curve.
There's a certain truth. People discover that truth first early, and then there's a bit of a bell curve where a small number of people are the tastemakers, the pioneers, and then they cascade that, and then it goes to a larger common wisdom. Therefore, the best insight is not a static thing about, hey, Southeast Asia has this level of returns, or these are the best funds, or these are the best startups and founders.
(02:42) Jeremy Au:
The key insight for me is that almost all key insights become common wisdom at some point of time, and the corollary of that is that the most insightful people are the people who come to understand the opinion first. Being early to an opinion while also being clear about the probability of that opinion has really been the marker of somebody that I really want to listen to.
In many ways, that's the art of forecasting, which is about saying this is my prediction and here's the probability of it happening. This is a skill set that VCs are supposed to have. We know that there are thousands of founders that are in the ecosystem. We know that there is a 90% death rate for startups and we know that only 1% of founders will eventually make it.
So VCs are being asked to predict or to forecast which of these startups are most likely to succeed years in advance of them succeeding. If they get it right, we reward them and applaud them. And if they fail on the prediction, then we make fun of them. The key part about this business, therefore, is about making the prediction.
That's the reason why VCs are such a fascinating class of preachers that the media loves to talk to and that some people love to follow because they are, in many ways, predicting the future.
They're saying "Hey, we believe that one day everyone's going to use virtual reality glasses." "We believe that one day in the future, everybody is going to stay wearing jeans, but they will want to make sure that they are produced in a low carbon manufacturing way."
So these VCs are being paid to be accurate forecasters and they are also being told to become tastemakers, because they need to convince the world that these startups and these founders are the future and they should buy the product. In other words, they have to be a bridge and advocate and champion of these early pioneers to the mass. And so they turn up on photos, they turn out on podcasts, they turn out on media talking about, hey, this is the future and it's inevitable that this future will come to pass.
(04:30) Jeremy Au:
So the biggest secret I've learned on the BRAVE podcast is that there are no secrets about the market, but that some people have access to that information earlier, and have the conviction to champion or articulate it earlier, and most importantly, the people who succeed in the private markets, like VC or private equity, are able to take action on that data, with entrepreneurship, with capital, with coordination of labor and media to take advantage of the opportunity.
The other secret I learned while on the podcast is really actually about the personal stories of people. I really enjoy interviewing people that I do know, as well as people I don't know. I think for people I don't know, obviously it's a great opportunity to learn about them as a person. Even for the people that I do know as acquaintances or friends, I'm often surprised by the podcast interview where I get to hear about an aspect that I never really got to hear about them before, which is their story about themselves. A person's story about themselves is a real story because not everybody knows that.
We know that Jeff Bezos is the founder of Amazon. We can go to Wikipedia. We can read lots of books about the art story of Jeff Bezos, but it's rare to hear Jeff Bezos speak about his personal story of Jeff Bezos because that story is in his head. So I really enjoy the quote, unquote secret of hearing people's individual stories about themselves because I think it explains so much about who they are and where they came from in terms of their family, in terms of story, in terms of their adversity. And also it often serves as a really good way to understand who they will become in the future and what are the values they use to make that decision moving forward.
Before the interview, I often know what they are. Founder VC, famous person, education profile. After the interview, I know who they are to themselves. I also get to learn about who they are and what they choose to portray to other people. That's a valuable set of knowledge because life is long.
(06:15) Jeremy Au:
The Southeast Asia tech ecosystem is intertwined. There are multiple connections that have been made, are being made and will continue to be made. Therefore, what somebody else is a temporal thing. They will be a CEO for three years. They will be a head of talent for two years. When you know somebody about who they are, then you have a much understanding about who they are in context to the other people in the ecosystem, whether it's a new emerger, an old competitor, or a friendly collaboration to be made. Having that mental model of who they are as a person lets you start the process of whether to see whether that story and mental model of them is actually accurate.
Sure, I met them once or twice at a conference. Sure, I've done a podcast interview with them for an hour to hear them share about their personal journey. And then, two years later, I meet them again for coffee. Five years later, I meet them for a dinner party. All those data points are individual photographs of aesthetic moments. Stitching them together creates that very 3D representation of a movie of who they are. Once you have seen that movie for them over the course of 1, 2, 3, 4 years, then it's better for you to be able to fast forward and predict who they are going to be in the future.
Now, I'm not saying anyone should do this because it's transactionally better or it's a professional skill set to be built. It's just a natural way of every human social being. If my father opens up the newspaper and sees a certain headline, I can predict what he's going to say because I have a mental model of who he is as a person. I can buy gifts and experiences for my wife because I know what she likes and what she does not like. I have a mental model of my father. I have a mental model of my wife. So all of us are walking around with mental models of our colleagues, our bosses, our subordinates. We know our competitors and what they're likely to do.
(07:53) Jeremy Au:
All in all, those are the two secrets that I've learned from the BRAVE podcast.
The first secret is about the market and broader truths about economy and politics. It is a matter of when you realize them rather than what they are because those secrets will eventually become common knowledge whether it's over the course of 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 50 years.
The second secret is the stories that people tell themselves and that they tell other people. That allows you or the listener to understand the professional circumstances and choices they will make and understand what they're going to do in the future. Understanding the choices they have made, and why they made those choices, is more key than seeing the results of those choices, which is title, pay, seniority, media attention.
If you like this episode, feel free to subscribe or leave us a review or send me a message. Check us out at www.bravesea.com. See you next time. Stay brave.